Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
31.66% ( -0.02) | 26.22% ( -0.01) | 42.12% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 52.51% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.06% ( 0.03) | 51.94% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.32% ( 0.03) | 73.68% ( -0.03) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.47% | 30.53% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.25% ( 0) | 66.75% ( -0) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.58% ( 0.03) | 24.42% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.15% ( 0.04) | 58.84% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 8.85% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0) Other @ 3.11% Total : 31.66% | 1-1 @ 12.47% 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.22% | 0-1 @ 10.51% 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0) 0-2 @ 7.41% ( 0) 1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.46% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 2.66% Total : 42.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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