Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Vizela |
31.26% ( -0.01) | 27.5% ( 0) | 41.23% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 48.44% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.93% ( -0.01) | 57.06% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.05% ( -0.01) | 77.94% ( 0) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.56% ( -0.02) | 33.44% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.93% ( -0.02) | 70.07% ( 0.01) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.77% ( -0) | 27.22% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.36% ( -0) | 62.64% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Vizela |
1-0 @ 9.97% 2-1 @ 7.11% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.46% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.6% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.99% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 31.26% | 1-1 @ 12.97% 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.5% | 0-1 @ 11.84% 1-2 @ 8.44% 0-2 @ 7.71% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.66% 0-3 @ 3.34% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.19% 0-4 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.95% Total : 41.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
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