Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.98%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Chaves |
37.98% ( -1.29) | 26.68% ( -0.23) | 35.33% ( 1.53) |
Both teams to score 51.88% ( 0.97) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.87% ( 1.13) | 53.13% ( -1.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.29% ( 0.95) | 74.7% ( -0.95) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.82% ( -0.19) | 27.18% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.41% ( -0.26) | 62.59% ( 0.26) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.25% ( 1.53) | 28.75% ( -1.52) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.41% ( 1.86) | 64.59% ( -1.86) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 10.18% ( -0.52) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 6.63% ( -0.38) 3-1 @ 3.59% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 2.88% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.1% Total : 37.98% | 1-1 @ 12.68% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.35) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.68% | 0-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.91% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.2) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.15) 1-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.64% Total : 35.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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