Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (10.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.
Result | ||
Boavista | Draw | Chaves |
40.94% ( -0.34) | 27.56% ( 0.13) | 31.5% ( 0.2) |
Both teams to score 48.35% ( -0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.79% ( -0.43) | 57.21% ( 0.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.93% ( -0.34) | 78.07% ( 0.34) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.55% ( -0.38) | 27.45% ( 0.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.06% ( -0.5) | 62.94% ( 0.5) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.65% ( -0.08) | 33.35% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.03% ( -0.09) | 69.97% ( 0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Boavista | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 11.83% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.62% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.91% Total : 40.93% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.55% | 0-1 @ 10.05% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 7.14% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.52% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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