Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.82%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Moreirense |
32.41% ( 0.02) | 25.77% ( -0.25) | 41.82% ( 0.24) |
Both teams to score 54.22% ( 0.85) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.15% ( 1.09) | 49.85% ( -1.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.15% ( 0.97) | 71.85% ( -0.96) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.01% ( 0.56) | 29% ( -0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.11% ( 0.68) | 64.89% ( -0.68) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.36% ( 0.6) | 23.65% ( -0.6) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.26% ( 0.86) | 57.74% ( -0.85) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Moreirense |
1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.57% Total : 32.41% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.31) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.77% | 0-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 7.13% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.24% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 3.43% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.98% Total : 41.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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