We said: Ghana 2-1 Madagascar
While the visitors are the clear underdogs heading into this match, it is worth noting that they are unbeaten in their last two matches against this opponent. However, both of those matches were on their home patch.
We are still expecting a whole-hearted performance from Barea but feel that the Black Stars will make their home-ground advantage count by coming out as narrow winners.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 69.48%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 9.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.8%) and 3-0 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.13%), while for a Madagascar win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ghana in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ghana.
-1.21) 
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