Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.76%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 10.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 3-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.2%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-2 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
73.76% ( -0.08) | 15.61% ( 0.05) | 10.62% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 53.94% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.86% ( -0.17) | 33.14% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
45.11% ( -0.19) | 54.89% ( 0.19) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.31% ( -0.05) | 7.69% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
72.59% ( -0.14) | 27.41% ( 0.14) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.43% ( -0.06) | 41.57% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.94% ( -0.06) | 78.06% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Rio Ave |
2-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.33% Total : 73.76% | 1-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.05% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 15.62% | 1-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0) 1-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.31% Total : 10.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
4 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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