Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.73%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
46.64% ( 0.49) | 27.19% ( -0.13) | 26.18% ( -0.36) |
Both teams to score 46.52% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.87% ( 0.25) | 58.13% ( -0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.21% ( 0.19) | 78.79% ( -0.19) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.06% ( 0.35) | 24.94% ( -0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.43% ( 0.48) | 59.57% ( -0.49) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.98% ( -0.17) | 38.02% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.21% ( -0.17) | 74.79% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
1-0 @ 13.16% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.14% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.29% Total : 46.63% | 1-1 @ 12.73% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.7% Total : 27.18% | 0-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.63% Total : 26.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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