Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 55.08%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 20.49%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Boavista |
55.08% | 24.43% | 20.49% |
Both teams to score 48.17% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.17% | 52.83% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.55% | 74.45% |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.91% | 19.09% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.3% | 50.7% |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.53% | 40.47% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.92% | 77.08% |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Boavista |
1-0 @ 12.79% 2-0 @ 10.59% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 5.85% 3-1 @ 5.29% 4-0 @ 2.42% 3-2 @ 2.39% 4-1 @ 2.19% 4-2 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.98% Total : 55.08% | 1-1 @ 11.57% 0-0 @ 7.72% 2-2 @ 4.34% Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.42% | 0-1 @ 6.99% 1-2 @ 5.24% 0-2 @ 3.16% 1-3 @ 1.58% 2-3 @ 1.31% 0-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.27% Total : 20.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
4 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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