Premier League | Gameweek 21
Jan 2, 2022 at 2pm UK
Elland Road
Leeds3 - 1Burnley
We said: Leeds United 1-0 Burnley
Even if Bamford is only fit enough to turn out for 45 or 60 minutes on Sunday, the England international's comeback will certainly aid Leeds' prospects of a priceless three points in this basement battle. Burnley did not simply roll over against Man United, but their away-day struggles and COVID-related absences will likely hinder their chances of a positive result as they begin 2022 on the back foot. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 51.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 23.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.93%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (7.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Burnley |
| 51.62% | 25.14% | 23.23% |
| Both teams to score 49.55% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
