Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 53.07%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Everton had a probability of 22.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Everton win it was 1-0 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
Result | ||
Everton | Draw | Newcastle United |
22.77% ( -0.07) | 24.16% ( -0.08) | 53.07% ( 0.15) |
Both teams to score 51.99% ( 0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.7% ( 0.24) | 49.3% ( -0.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.65% ( 0.22) | 71.35% ( -0.21) |
Everton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.81% ( 0.07) | 36.19% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.02% ( 0.07) | 72.98% ( -0.06) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.48% ( 0.15) | 18.52% ( -0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.25% ( 0.25) | 49.75% ( -0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Everton | Draw | Newcastle United |
1-0 @ 6.81% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.98% 3-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 1.84% Total : 22.77% | 1-1 @ 11.48% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.7% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.15% | 0-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.69% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 9.53% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.45% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 5.36% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.77% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.3% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 2.26% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.26% Total : 53.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Manchester CityMan City | 36 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 91 | 33 | 58 | 85 |
2 | Arsenal | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 28 | 60 | 83 |
3 | Liverpool | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Aston Villa | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 59 | 12 | 63 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 79 | 57 | 22 | 57 |
7 | Chelsea | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 73 | 61 | 12 | 57 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 52 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 48 |
11 | Bournemouth | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 48 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 46 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 46 |
14 | Fulham | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 44 |
15 | Everton | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 37 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 50 | 81 | -31 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 40 | 76 | -36 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 37 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 35 | 101 | -66 | 16 |
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