Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.97%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 8.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.87%) and 0-3 (10.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.81%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 1-0 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Rio Ave | Draw | Benfica |
8.4% ( -0.11) | 16.63% ( -0.05) | 74.97% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 40.72% ( -0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.56% ( -0.14) | 45.44% ( 0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.23% ( -0.14) | 67.77% ( 0.14) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
45.48% ( -0.35) | 54.52% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
12.41% ( -0.21) | 87.59% ( 0.21) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.54% ( 0.01) | 10.46% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.92% ( 0.01) | 34.08% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Rio Ave | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 3.46% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.52% Total : 8.4% | 1-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.44% Total : 16.63% | 0-2 @ 14.53% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 12.87% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 10.93% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.82% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 6.63% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 6.17% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 2.79% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) 0-6 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 74.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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