Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 36.47%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 35.52% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.8%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
Result | ||
Santa Clara | Draw | Rio Ave |
35.52% ( -0.05) | 28.02% ( -0.22) | 36.47% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 47.75% ( 0.67) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.69% ( 0.83) | 58.32% ( -0.82) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.07% ( 0.65) | 78.94% ( -0.64) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.8% ( 0.39) | 31.2% ( -0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.46% ( 0.45) | 67.55% ( -0.44) |
Rio Ave Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.4% ( 0.59) | 30.61% ( -0.58) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.16% ( 0.69) | 66.84% ( -0.69) |
Score Analysis |
Santa Clara | Draw | Rio Ave |
1-0 @ 11.12% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 2.98% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 2.51% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.06) Other @ 3% Total : 35.52% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.76% Total : 28.01% | 0-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.25% Total : 36.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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