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Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
Estonia national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2023 at 5pm UK
A. Le Coq Arena
Azerbaijan national football team

Estonia
0 - 2
Azerbaijan


Pikk (18'), Kait (68'), Vetkal (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Bayramov (9'), Seydayev (45+4' pen.)
Mahmudov (22'), Mammadov (40'), Madatov (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Estonia and Azerbaijan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Belgium 5-0 Estonia
Tuesday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Belgium51213
2Austria5813
3Sweden536
4Azerbaijan4-91
5Estonia5-141

Azerbaijan

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Azerbaijan 2-1 Jordan
Tuesday, September 12 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Belgium51213
2Austria5813
3Sweden536
4Azerbaijan4-91
5Estonia5-141

We said: Estonia 1-2 Azerbaijan

 A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched nations could be on the cards on Friday, but considering Estonia's recent troubles in defence and Azerbaijan's solid performances against Belgium and Jordan last time out, we believe that the visitors will do enough to claim a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 45.6%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Estonia win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.

Result
EstoniaDrawAzerbaijan
28.36% (0.304 0.3) 26.04% (-0.154 -0.15) 45.6% (-0.152 -0.15)
Both teams to score 51.35% (0.672 0.67)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.36% (0.775 0.77)52.64% (-0.77699999999999 -0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.71% (0.661 0.66)74.29% (-0.663 -0.66)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.72% (0.64700000000001 0.65)33.28% (-0.649 -0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.1% (0.703 0.7)69.9% (-0.705 -0.7)
Azerbaijan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.97% (0.262 0.26)23.03% (-0.264 -0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.15% (0.385 0.38)56.85% (-0.387 -0.39)
Score Analysis
    Estonia 28.36%
    Azerbaijan 45.59%
    Draw 26.04%
EstoniaDrawAzerbaijan
1-0 @ 8.43% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 6.81% (0.084 0.08)
2-0 @ 4.64% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.5% (0.074 0.07)
3-2 @ 1.83% (0.069 0.07)
3-0 @ 1.7% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 2.44%
Total : 28.36%
1-1 @ 12.38% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-0 @ 7.67% (-0.238 -0.24)
2-2 @ 5% (0.1 0.1)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.04%
0-1 @ 11.25% (-0.26 -0.26)
1-2 @ 9.09% (0.023 0.02)
0-2 @ 8.26% (-0.126 -0.13)
1-3 @ 4.45% (0.046 0.05)
0-3 @ 4.04% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.45% (0.067 0.07)
1-4 @ 1.63% (0.029 0.03)
0-4 @ 1.48%
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 45.59%

How you voted: Estonia vs Azerbaijan

Estonia
21.1%
Draw
27.4%
Azerbaijan
51.6%
95
Head to Head
Jun 17, 2023 5pm
Group Stage
Azerbaijan
1-1
Estonia
Krivotsyuk (62')
Bayramov (72')
Sappinen (27')
Mets (42'), Kait (90+2')
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