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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.16%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 1-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Go Ahead Eagles win it was 1-2 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
60.16% ( -1.6) | 20.64% ( 0.26) | 19.2% ( 1.33) |
Both teams to score 58.33% ( 1.65) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.68% ( 0.96) | 38.31% ( -0.97) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.4% ( 1.02) | 60.59% ( -1.02) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.61% ( -0.16) | 12.39% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.73% ( -0.32) | 38.26% ( 0.31) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.58% ( 1.99) | 33.41% ( -2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.96% ( 2.12) | 70.04% ( -2.13) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Go Ahead Eagles |
2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.03% ( -0.53) 1-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.46) 3-1 @ 6.89% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.41) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 3.28% ( -0.23) 4-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.92% Total : 60.16% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.22% Total : 20.64% | 1-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.29) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( 0.15) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.2% Total : 19.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 103 | 17 | 86 | 84 |
2 | Feyenoord | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 80 | 24 | 56 | 75 |
3 | FC Twente | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 35 | 27 | 58 |
5 | Ajax | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 65 | 58 | 7 | 49 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 47 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 46 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 42 |
10 | Heerenveen | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 36 |
11 | PEC Zwolle | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 35 |
12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 33 |
14 | Heracles | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 32 |
15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 66 | -20 | 26 |
16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 31 | 52 | -21 | 25 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 75 | -45 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 2 |
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