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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 24.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.52%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
24.53% ( -0.19) | 23.41% ( -0.61) | 52.06% ( 0.8) |
Both teams to score 56.43% ( 1.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.61% ( 2.49) | 44.39% ( -2.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.24% ( 2.37) | 66.76% ( -2.36) |
Go Ahead Eagles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.05% ( 1.19) | 31.95% ( -1.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.59% ( 1.33) | 68.41% ( -1.32) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.93% ( 1.23) | 17.07% ( -1.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.76% ( 2.14) | 47.24% ( -2.13) |
Score Analysis |
Go Ahead Eagles | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 3.55% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.64% Total : 24.53% | 1-1 @ 11% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.61) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.41% | 1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.65) 0-2 @ 8.52% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 5.73% ( 0.26) 0-3 @ 5.02% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.25) 1-4 @ 2.53% ( 0.21) 0-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.12) 2-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.16) Other @ 3.95% Total : 52.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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