Barnsley and Reading meet at Oakwell on Saturday afternoon in a potentially decisive game in the Championship relegation battle.
With Derby County and Peterborough United nearly cut adrift, it may be considered a straight shootout between these two clubs to survive. The Royals are currently 21st in the table, five points ahead of the Tykes in 22nd.
Match preview
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Reading are certainly in the stronger position to maintain their Championship status after picking up four points from games against top-six sides Bournemouth and Blackburn Rovers before the international break.
Josh Laurent's stunning goal earned the Royals victory over Rovers, which was only Paul Ince's second win in six matches as interim manager.
This is the first of three consecutive games against teams in the bottom 10 for Reading, which they should see as a huge opportunity to secure their safety.
However, the Berkshire outfit have the second-worst defence in the Championship and have only won five of their 20 away matches this season.
John Swift scored the only goal of the game as Reading won 1-0 in this season's reverse fixture against Barnsley at the Select Car Leasing Stadium.
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The Tykes' survival hopes suffered a blow before the international break as they lost 2-0 to South Yorkshire rivals Sheffield United.
It is now just one win in five matches for Poya Asbaghi's side, but they are unbeaten in their last five on home turf. Twenty-one of their 28 points this season have come at Oakwell.
Barnsley are the Championship's lowest scorers this season with just 28 goals from 38 games; they have netted more than twice in a match on only one occasion.
The Yorkshire outfit are winless in their nine most recent meetings with Reading and the Royals have not lost on their last nine visits to Oakwell since defeat there in 1998. Paul Ince was playing for Liverpool at the time, while Poya Asbaghi was just 13 years old.
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Team News
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Barnsley forward pair Cauley Woodrow and Victor Adeboyejo are nearing returns to action following injury but this game comes too soon for them.
Carlton Morris has stepped up in their absence and has scored in two of his last three matches. January signings Domingos Quina and Amine Bassi have also added attacking threat.
Reds centre-back Aapo Halme has suffered an injury in training and will be out for around two weeks.
Reading have suffered a huge blow with the news that Andy Rinomhota and Yakou Meite have been ruled out for the rest of the season through injury.
Alen Halilovic is still two weeks away from returning from a thigh issue, while Baba Rahman is back in training following a hamstring injury.
The Royals signed centre-back Terrell Thomas on a short-term deal during the international break so he will be in contention to make his debut.
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Collins; Brittain, Helik, Andersen, Vita; Gomes, Palmer; Bassi, Styles, Quina; Morris
Reading possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Yiadom, Holmes, Morrison, McIntyre; Drinkwater, Laurent; Ince, Swift, Ejaria; Joao
We say: Barnsley 1-1 Reading
With survival on the line, this game should be a nervy and tense affair with both sides likely to be cautious with their approach. Reading have more quality but Barnsley have been hard to beat at Oakwell recently so we think that it will end level.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 48.93%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Reading had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.27%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (8.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
