In the final round of fixtures in the Copa America group stage, Venezuela and Peru do battle with the outcome likely deciding who progresses to the final eight.
With four teams progressing out of the group of five, Peru occupy third spot on four points, while their opponents currently sit at the foot of the group with two points, although they only trail Ecuador on goal difference.
Match preview
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Venezuela come into this knowing that they require at least a point to progress to the quarter-finals, unless a major goal difference swing occurs with Ecuador suffering a heavier defeat than Jose Peseiro's men.
They suffered a crushing defeat in their opening game, as they took on a heavily-fancied Brazil side, with goals from Marquinhos, Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa firing the host nation to a 3-0 victory.
However, they bounced back quickly to earn a point in another tough clash, as La Vinotinto stood strong to hold Colombia to a goalless draw in Goiania.
Peseiro's men then earned another point in a dramatic 2-2 draw with Ecuador, having come from behind.
Edson Castillo equalised for his side early in the second half after Ayrton Preciado put Ecuador ahead, but their opponents retook the lead through Gonzalo Plata with 10 minutes to go and looked set to send Venezuela home empty-handed until Ronald Hernandez netted a 91st-minute equaliser to keep La Vinotinto in the fight for a top-four finish.
With a two-point gap between themselves and Sunday's opponents, while only trailing Ecuador by two in the goal difference column, Peseiro's men will know that a win guarantees them a spot in the quarter-finals, although a draw could be enough to leapfrog Ecuador considering La Tricolor have a tough clash with group leaders Brazil.
Their opponents have a much clearer task, as they simply need to avoid defeat to confirm their passage to the knockout stage.
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Peru have collected a commendable tally of four points from their three games so far, putting them in a strong position to qualify out of their group, while it may already be enough considering Ecuador's difficult final game.
They started with a tough encounter with Brazil, as Alex Sandro and Neymar gave the pre-tournament favourites a two-goal lead before Everton Ribeiro and Richarlison scored late goals to rub salt in the wounds of Peru.
Los Incas bounced back well though, as they recorded an impressive 2-1 win over Colombia in their second outing.
They took an early lead through Sergio Pena, but Miguel Borja drew Colombia level from the penalty spot before a Yerry Mina own goal restored Peru's lead and saw them pick up three crucial points in the group.
Ricardo Gareca's side then fought from behind against Ecuador last time out to earn a point and all but confirm their place in the quarter-finals.
Their opponents went into half time with a two-goal lead through a Renato Tapia own goal and a Preciado finish, but Peru replied quickly after the break as Gianluca Lapadula pulled a goal back before Andre Carrillo netted the equaliser in the 54th minute, with the game ending level.
While they are at risk of dropping out if they lose and Ecuador pick up an unlikely win, Los Incas will instead look upwards, as a point would see them leapfrog Colombia and move up to second spot, potentially earning a more favourable quarter-final draw.
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Team News
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Venezuela are expected to remain without a long list of key players after a coronavirus outbreak in the camp at the beginning of the tournament, with Peseiro having to call up a new crop of players as a result.
The absentees include talismanic forward Josef Martinez and important defenders Mikel Villanueva and Roberto Rosales.
In their absence, Fernando Aristeguieta has led the line while Adrian Martinez, Jose Velazquez and Luis Mago could again line up at the heart of a back five.
Peru are without key forwards for a different reason, as Gareca opted to omit both Raul Ruidiaz and record scorer Paolo Guerrero from his Copa America squad.
Gianluca Lapadula has led the line in their absence, and he netted his first goal of the tournament in the draw with Ecuador.
Meanwhile, the trio of Sergio Pena, Christian Cueva and Andre Carrillo have been crucial in supporting the new forward, having been responsible for three of Peru's four goals so far.
Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Gonzalez, Mago, A Martinez, Velazquez, Cumana; J Martinez, Moreno, Castillo, Casseres; Aristeguieta
Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Corzo, Ramos, Callens, Trauco; Yotun, Tapia; Carrillo, Pena, Cueva; Lapadula
We say: Venezuela 1-1 Peru
Peru arguably boast the slightly stronger of the two squads given the circumstances around Venezuela, but with the need for a result, we see La Vinotinto digging deep for a result.
While they lack the firepower to put Los Incas to the sword, Peseiro's men have shown resilience to draw two consecutive games against the odds, and that could see them to another vital point in their bid to get over the line and finish in the top four.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 37.13%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 1-0 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Peru in this match.
