Holding a 1-0 advantage from the first leg of their Championship playoff semi-final, Swansea City will be looking to finish the job when they welcome Barnsley to the Liberty Stadium on Saturday evening.
Andre Ayew scored the only goal of the match at Oakwell on Monday to hand the Welsh club a one-goal lead heading into what should be a fascinating second leg between the two sides.
Match preview
© Reuters
Barnsley certainly had their moments in the first leg at Oakwell, but a curling effort from Ayew handed Swansea a slender advantage, making the Welsh outfit the favourites to progress to the Championship playoff final, where they will take on the winner of the other semi-final between Bournemouth and Brentford.
Steve Cooper's side finished fourth in the regular Championship season, winning 23, drawing 11 and losing 12 of their 46 matches to finish on 80 points, 11 points behind second-placed Watford.
The Swans have spent the last three campaigns in the second tier, finishing 10th in 2018-19 before losing to Brentford in last season's playoff semi-final, having claimed sixth in the final standings.
Cooper's team were strong at the Liberty Stadium during the regular season, claiming 42 points from 23 matches, but they will be taking on a Barnsley side with the fifth-best away record in the Championship.
Swansea recorded 2-0 wins over Barnsley in their two league matches in 2020-21, meanwhile, and have not actually conceded a single goal against the Tykes in the last four meetings between the two sides.
© Reuters
Barnsley had plenty of positive moments in the first leg of the semi-final but could not find a route past Swansea goalkeeper Freddie Woodman, with the Welsh side securing a vital clean sheet.
Losing in the semi-finals would be a huge disappointment, but there is no question that it has been a brilliant season for the Tykes, who were only promoted from League One at the end of 2018-19.
Barnsley have not been a Premier League team since 1998, meanwhile, and the fact that they finished 21st in the Championship last season is another indication of their progress this term.
Valerien Ismael's side finished fifth in the regular season, winning 23 of their 46 matches, but they are now without a victory in their last three, having finished their campaign with a loss at Preston North End and a draw at home to Championship winners Norwich City.
The Tykes will be looking to the likes of Cauley Woodrow and Daryl Dike to fire them past Swansea, and the last-four clash is still delicately poised heading into the second leg at the Liberty Stadium.
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Swansea have no fresh injury concerns from the first leg, and it would not be a surprise to see Cooper send the same starting XI onto the field considering the result.
Wayne Routledge came off the bench to replace Liam Cullen in the second half of Monday's clash, but there were no more substitutions, with Cooper reluctant to change it.
Ayew and Jamal Lowe are certainties to start in the final third of the field, while Jay Fulton, Matt Grimes and Conor Hourihane should feature as the midfield three for the Welsh side.
As for Barnsley, Carlton Morris was a half-time substitute in the first leg, and it would not be a surprise to see the number 14 now handed a spot in the starting XI.
Ismael is expected to resist the temptation to make changes elsewhere, though, with a back three and midfield four operating behind the likes of Woodrow and Dike in attack.
Alex Mowatt recovered from a groin injury to feature in the first leg, and the 26-year-old will again be in the starting XI for the Tykes this weekend.
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Cabango, Guehi, Bidwell; Fulton, Grimes, Hourihane; Ayew, Cullen, Lowe
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Collins; Sibbick, Helik, Andersen; Brittain, Palmer, Mowatt, Styles; Morris, Dike, Woodrow
We say: Swansea City 2-1 Barnsley
There is no question that Barnsley are capable of overturning the one-goal deficit, but we are finding it very hard to look past Swansea here. The Welsh outfit have quality throughout the side and should have enough to win on the night and advance to the final of the playoffs.
Top tip
VOTE IN THE END-OF-SEASON SPORTS MOLE AWARDS!
Have your say in the annual end-of-season Sports Mole Reader Awards!
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-0 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
