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San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer | Gameweek 41
Oct 21, 2021 at 3.30am UK
Buck Shaw Stadium
Austin FC

Earthquakes
4 - 0
Austin

Lopez (47'), Kikanovic (53'), Wondolowski (59'), Fierro (85')
Cardoso (25'), Lopez (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Romana (39'), Ring (45+1')

Preview: San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between San Jose Earthquakes and Austin FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

San Jose Earthquakes will be targeting three points on Thursday when they face the Western Conference's bottom-placed side Austin FC, to keep their slim but not impossible hopes of making the playoffs alive.

With five games to play, the Earthquakes will need to win all of their remaining matches, whilst hoping the sides above them drop points.


Match preview

San Jose Earthquakes team before the game on June 23, 2021© Reuters

Soundly beaten by fellow Californian side Los Angeles FC last time out, the gap between the Earthquakes and the playoffs had stretched to eight points by the close of play on matchday 29.

It had looked as if San Jose would fall catastrophically short of the playoffs earlier in the season, after a run of 11 matches without a win between mid-May and early July had left them scratching around at the bottom of the table.

Matias Almeyda's side enjoyed somewhat of a mid-season revival, yet their inconsistent form in recent weeks has left them with a mountain to climb if they wish to be involved in only their second playoffs since 2013.

As a Californian club, the Earthquakes will be well acquainted to mountains, given their close proximity to the Diablo Range, and their mid-week opponents are another side who have experienced rocky terrain this year.

In their inaugural campaign as a Major League Soccer club, Austin have struggled to leave their mark and enter the final weeks of the season looking to avoid finishing the year bottom of the Western Conference.

They currently trail second-bottom FC Dallas by three points, with a win against San Jose likely to put them within touching distance of their Texan rivals.

However, three points on Thursday looks an unlikely achievement for Austin at the moment, not least given their winless record against San Jose in the previous two meetings between the pair.

The Earthquakes picked up their maiden victory against Austin last month after the two played out a goalless draw in their opening encounter back in June.

Perhaps Austin's only saving grace will be San Jose's dreadful home record, which has seen the side lose seven of their 14 matches at PayPal Park this year.

San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Austin FC Major League Soccer form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

Austin FC forward Cecilio Dominguez celebrates with defender Matt Besler after scoring a goal on June 12, 2021© Reuters

The issue for Austin this season has been scoring goals and the conference's worst attack will be desperate for top-scorer Cecilio Dominguez to add to his seven league goals already this year.

Dominguez will be part of a depleted Austin side, with Matt Besler (concussion), Ulises Segura (knee) and Aston Schoenfeld (knee) all likely to be missing for the remainder of the month.

Danny Hoesen and Ben Sweat have not been so lucky with their injuries, as the pair have both been ruled out for the rest of the season with a hip problem and anterior cruciate ligament damage respectively.

In contrast to Austin's depleted side, San Jose will boast near enough a full squad for the match, with Matt Bersano (hand) the only absentee through injury.

Slim hopes of a playoff spot will not be aided by the absence of Eric Remedi, who will miss the visit of Austin through suspension.

San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Abecasis, Nathan, Alanis, Salinas; Silva Tavares, Yueill; Espinoza, Lopez, Ebobisse; Kikanovic

Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Jimenez, Cascante, Romana, Kolmanic; Ring, Pochettino; Fagundez, Driussi, Dominguez; Djitte


SM words green background

We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Austin FC

Austin will be hoping the 2022 campaign brings about better fortunes for them, after what has been a season to forget for the Texan club.

MLS regulars San Jose have not enjoyed that much better of a year, and with the playoffs a distant dream at this point of the season, the Earthquakes players are likely thinking of their post-season break.






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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 58.42%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 18.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Earthquakes vs Austin

San Jose Earthquakes
55.6%
Draw
33.3%
Austin FC
11.1%
27
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Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter MiamiInter Miami1163226161021
2FC CincinnatiCincinnati10532129318
3New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls104511410417
4Toronto105141113-216
5Columbus Crew10361129315
6New York City FCNY City104241110114
7Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia83411511413
8DC United103431415-113
9Atlanta UnitedAtlanta9333139412
10CF MontrealMontreal93331216-412
11Charlotte FCCharlotte FC103251013-311
12Chicago Fire102441118-710
13Orlando City92341117-69
14Nashville SCNashville91531017-78
15New England RevolutionNew England9117618-124

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Salt LakeSalt Lake10532179818
2Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy105322117418
3Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver95221810817
4Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd95221510517
5Colorado RapidsColorado104331615115
6Austin FCAustin104331413115
7Los Angeles FCLos Angeles103431716113
8Houston DynamoHouston9414910-113
9St Louis City92611514112
10Portland TimbersPortland102532020011
11Sporting Kansas CityKansas102531818011
12Dallas9225912-38
13Seattle SoundersSeattle91351011-16
14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes101181425-114


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