Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.81%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 25.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Famalicao |
45.81% ( 1.17) | 28.39% ( 0.18) | 25.79% ( -1.35) |
Both teams to score 43.09% ( -1.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
37.63% ( -1.26) | 62.37% ( 1.26) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
17.99% ( -0.93) | 82.01% ( 0.93) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.7% ( 0.01) | 27.3% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.26% ( 0.02) | 62.74% ( -0.01) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.26% ( -1.88) | 40.74% ( 1.88) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.68% ( -1.73) | 77.32% ( 1.73) |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Famalicao |
1-0 @ 14.43% ( 0.66) 2-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.43) 2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( -0) Other @ 1.75% Total : 45.8% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.53% Total : 28.39% | 0-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.33) 0-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.2) 0-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.13) Other @ 1.29% Total : 25.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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