Morecambe have a one-goal lead to hold onto on home turf against Tranmere Rovers in the second leg of their League Two playoff semi-final.
The Shrimps earned a 2-1 victory in an entertaining first leg at Prenton Park on Thursday night and will now want to finish the job and book a place at Wembley.
Match preview
© Reuters
All three goals in the first leg were scored before the break; Nathaniel Knight-Percival put Morecambe ahead only for Peter Clarke to equaliser four minutes later, before Liam McAlinden restored the Shrimps' advantage on the stroke of half time.
Yet Derek Adams's side were left hanging on in the second half, as Tranmere dominated proceedings with 75% possession and 17 shots compared to Morecambe's seven.
There were promising signs but ultimately frustration for Rovers boss Ian Dawes, who has been given the responsibility of getting the club promoted after Keith Hill was sacked at the start of last week.
Hill was relieved of his duties as Tranmere ended the regular season with just two wins in 11 games and, pertinently to this fixture, one victory in seven away matches.
It meant that the Birkenhead outfit went from chasing automatic promotion at the start of April to only securing their playoff spot on the final day; their final league position of seventh was the lowest they had been since January.
Tranmere are hoping to bounce straight back to League One after they were relegated on points per game last season; they won the League Two playoff final in 2019, 12 months after triumphing in the National League playoff final.
Meanwhile, Morecambe, who finished 22nd last season, have never reached the third tier and no side has a longer current tenure in League Two. The Shrimps have been in the fourth tier since 2007 and have only competed in the playoffs on one other occasion, when they lost in the semi-finals to Dagenham & Redbridge in 2009-10.
That season they lost 6-0 in the first leg, so they will be pleased to not only still be in the contest but to be winning on this occasion.
Morecambe's victory at Prenton Park was their sixth win in seven games, a run of form that was not quite enough to secure an automatic promotion spot as they finished in fourth, one point behind third-placed Bolton Wanderers.
No team won more points (44) or scored more goals (38) at home than Adams's men in the regular League Two season, while they have won seven of their last 10 matches at the Mazuma Stadium.
Tranmere were actually one of only five teams to beat Morecambe in Lancashire in the league, as Kaiyne Woolery's goal proved decisive in a 1-0 win for Rovers in January.
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Morecambe were able to welcome back Aaron Wildig on Thursday night after an ankle injury, but John O'Sullivan remains sidelined with a hamstring problem.
In O'Sullivan's absence on the wing, McAlinden has scored in each of his last two games, having netted just once in his previous 33.
Right-back Kelvin Mellor is available again after serving a three-game suspension, while on the other side of defence Liam Gibson will battle with Stephen Hendrie for the left-back spot after returning from injury.
Tranmere top scorer James Vaughan completed 90 minutes on Thursday having not started since the end of February, so will need to be assessed ahead of Sunday; David Nugent or Woolery could start in his place.
Rovers have no confirmed absentees apart from first choice goalkeeper Scott Davies, who suffered an Achilles injury at the end of March, so 39-year-old Joe Murphy will continue to deputise.
Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Letheren; Mellor, Lavelle, Knight-Percival, Gibson; Songo'o; McAlinden, Diagouraga, Wildig, Mendes Gomes; Stockton
Tranmere Rovers possible starting lineup:
Murphy; O'Connor, Clarke, Monthe, Ridehalgh; Lewis, Spearing, Morris; Feeney; Nugent, Woolery
We say: Morecambe 1-1 Tranmere Rovers
Having won away from home, Morecambe will be big favourites to progress here. Tranmere showed their threat in the first leg so could turn the tie around if they can sort their finishing out, but we think that the Shrimps will do enough to secure their place in the final.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tranmere Rovers win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 35.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tranmere Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
