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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 62.92%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 16.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 1-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-2 (4.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
Result | ||
Reading | Draw | Northampton Town |
62.92% ( -0.26) | 20.29% ( 0.12) | 16.79% ( 0.13) |
Both teams to score 54.65% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.13% ( -0.33) | 40.87% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.74% ( -0.34) | 63.26% ( 0.34) |
Reading Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.6% ( -0.17) | 12.4% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.72% ( -0.36) | 38.28% ( 0.36) |
Northampton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.38% ( -0.04) | 37.62% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.6% ( -0.04) | 74.4% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Reading | Draw | Northampton Town |
2-0 @ 10.16% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.92% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.6% Total : 62.91% | 1-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.3% | 1-2 @ 4.65% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.56% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.58% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.25% Total : 16.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 45 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 76 | 41 | 35 | 94 |
2 | Derby CountyDerby | 45 | 27 | 8 | 10 | 76 | 37 | 39 | 89 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 45 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 83 | 48 | 35 | 86 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 45 | 25 | 8 | 12 | 86 | 58 | 28 | 83 |
5 | Barnsley | 45 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 81 | 63 | 18 | 75 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 45 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 65 | 38 | 27 | 74 |
7 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 45 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 77 | 55 | 22 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 45 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 63 | 45 | 18 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 68 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 62 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 62 |
12 | Exeter CityExeter | 45 | 17 | 10 | 18 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 61 |
13 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 45 | 19 | 10 | 16 | 61 | 56 | 5 | 59 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 45 | 17 | 8 | 20 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 59 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 45 | 16 | 9 | 20 | 52 | 66 | -14 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 45 | 11 | 20 | 14 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 45 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 65 | 68 | -3 | 50 |
18 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 45 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 48 |
19 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 45 | 12 | 11 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 47 |
20 | Burton Albion | 45 | 12 | 10 | 23 | 39 | 64 | -25 | 46 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 45 | 12 | 8 | 25 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 45 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 40 |
R | Port Vale | 45 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 40 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 45 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 41 | 79 | -38 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |