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Flamengo
Brasileiro | Gameweek 29
Oct 30, 2021 at 11pm UK
Estádio Olímpico João Havelange
Atletico Mineiro

Flamengo
1 - 0
Atletico Mineiro

Michael (26')
Ribeiro (39'), Henrique (45'), Alves (90+2'), Rodinei (90+7')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Guga (20'), Silva (27')

Preview: Flamengo vs. Atletico Mineiro - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between Flamengo and Atletico Mineiro, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Flamengo host Brasileiro leaders Atletico Mineiro on Saturday, and the home side enter this fixture having not won a game in their last four attempts across all competitions.

The visitors are in fine form having only lost once in their last 21 games in all competitions, and they already have a 10-point lead at the top of the table with a game in hand on second and third place.


Match preview

Flamengo coach Renato Gaucho reacts on October 17, 2021© Reuters

Renato Gaucho's side suffered disappointment in the semi-final of the Brazil Cup on Thursday, losing 3-0 against Athletico Paranaense after initially drawing 2-2 in the first leg.

Between those cup ties, Flamengo faced rivals Fluminense in the Brasileiro and suffered another defeat by conceding three goals, with Rene's 71st-minute strike only ending up to be a consolation goal for the visitors.

Shipping six goals in two matches is uncharacteristic for Flamengo, who have one of the best defensive records in the league this season, only conceding 24 times in 25 matches.

Flamengo are only still sitting in fourth place due to goal difference, but they do have three games in hand on the sides around them, giving Gaucho's team a chance to make up some lost ground in weeks to come.

Atletico Mineiro's Eduardo Sasha celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on August 23, 2021© Reuters

The league leaders progressed into the final of the Brazil Cup this week, completing their semi-final tie with an aggregate score of 6-1 against Fortaleza.

Diego Costa and Hulk ensured that Mineiro won the second leg on Thursday and Cuca's side have now booked themselves into the final, which will be played in December when they will face Athletico Paranaense.

Last time out in the Brasileiro, Atletico Mineiro bounced back from defeat against Atletico Goianiense by collecting three points when they welcomed Cuiaba to the Estadio Governador Magalhaes Pinto.

The table toppers fell behind in that game only two minutes after kickoff but Hulk replied shortly afterwards to level the score, before Jair completed the turnaround just before half time, and that is how the game would go on to finish.

One of Mineiro's biggest strengths this season has been their defence, having only conceded 20 goals in 27 games, the best record in the league, but they have not kept a league clean sheet since the beginning of October.

Cuca's side have already won more games away from home during this campaign than they managed last year, and they will be looking to add to that and extend the gap at the top this weekend.

Flamengo Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Flamengo form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L

Atletico Mineiro Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Atletico Mineiro form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Flamengo's Bruno Henrique celebrates scoring their third goal with Filipe Luis and teammates on August 1, 2021© Reuters

David Luiz only managed two games for Flamengo since his arrival from Arsenal before being sidelined due to injury and he is nearing a return to action but Sunday may come too early for the experienced centre-back.

Bruno Henrique and Gabriel Barbosa made their returns from injury on Thursday as the duo completed 90 minutes in the Brazil Cup, while Giorgian de Arrascaeta will continue to be absent from the matchday squad.

Barbosa is expected to lead the line for the home side, while Manchester United loanee Andreas Pereira will operate in the number 10 role behind the striker.

Atletico Mineiro right-back Mariano is unavailable for the league leaders as he is sidelined due to a groin injury, but he is the only injury concern for Cuca.

The away side are expected to line up in a similar way to which they did last time out in the league, with Hulk expected to continue to lead the line.

Tche Tche came into midfield for the second leg of the semi-final but Allan is likely to return to the starting 11 alongside Jair in midfield.

Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Luis, Leo Pereira, Viana, Matheuzinho; Maia, Arao; Michael, Andreas Pereira, Ribeiro; Barbosa

Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Arana, Alonso, Nathan, Guga; Allan, Jair; Keno, Fernandez, Zaracho; Hulk


SM words green background

We say: Flamengo 1-1 Atletico Mineiro

With both of these sides having been in cup action during midweek, the boost that Atletico Mineiro would have gained and the disappointment experienced by Flamengo may have an influence on this game.

However, Mineiro have not been as effective away from home this season, and Flamengo have won over 61% of their home matches this season, suggesting that the hosts could make it a difficult outing for the league leaders.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 45.11%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Flamengo in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro

Flamengo
38.5%
Draw
38.5%
Atletico Mineiro
23.1%
13
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