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Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 8
Sep 18, 2021 at 3pm UK
Pride Park
Stoke logo

Derby
2 - 1
Stoke

Bird (31'), Davies (34')
Shinnie (8'), Sibley (38')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ince (58')
Sawyers (33'), Skiri Oestigaard (77'), Ince (89')

Preview: Derby County vs. Stoke City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Following the news of their expected points deduction, Derby County will be looking to secure a much-needed victory at home against Stoke City in the Championship on Saturday afternoon.

The Potters, meanwhile, have made their best start to a league campaign since 2004-05, accumulating 14 points from their first seven games.


Match preview

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney on September 14, 2021© Reuters

Derby's challenging start to the new campaign is set to get much tougher in the coming weeks as the club announced on Wednesday night that they are in talks with the EFL regarding a potential nine-point deduction for breaching financial fair play rules.

The Rams, who currently sit 16th in the Championship with seven points from their first seven games, could see their points tally reduced to minus figures which would also see them plummet to the foot of the table.

No timescale has been put on the final decision at present and Wayne Rooney will be keen for his players to remain focussed on their next task in hand against Stoke this weekend.

Derby head into Saturday's game after securing a goalless draw away at West Bromwich Albion on Tuesday night. Rooney criticised West Brom's uncompromising style of football, but nevertheless was pleased to have picked up a point at the Hawthorns.

The Rams have a poor record in recent seasons against the Potters, having won only one of their last eight meetings against them, a 4-0 victory at Pride Park in January 2020.

Derby have also won just one of their last 14 Championship games, with each of their last four home fixtures ending in a draw. With an impeding points deduction on the horizon, a much-needed upturn in form is required for Rooney's men.

Stoke City's Jacob Brown celebrates scoring their first goal on September 11, 2021© Reuters

Stoke's 100% start at the bet365 Stadium came to an end on Wednesday night, when they played out a fiery 1-1 draw against Barnsley.

After Sam Surridge opened the scoring in the 17th minute, a stunning free kick from Cauley Woodrow drew the Tykes level seven minutes before the break. Mario Vrancic then had the chance to put the hosts back in front from the penalty spot, however his effort in first-half stoppage time was saved by Bradley Collins.

In the second half, Potters full-back Tommy Smith was shown a straight red card in the final five minutes for a lunge on Claudio Gomes, before first-team coaches Dean Holden and Rory Delap, as well as Barnsley assistant Joe Laumann, were sent to the stands following a mass touchline brawl in the dying seconds.

Michael O'Neill's men missed the chance to climb into the Championship's top two, and have instead slipped down to fifth place, though they are only two points behind league leaders Fulham.

Stoke now turn their attention to Saturday's trip to Pride Park, where they have failed to score in each of their last three league visits.

With four of their next five fixtures against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, the Potters will be confident of continuing their impressive start to the campaign.

Derby County Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D

Derby County form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D

Stoke City Championship form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D

Stoke City form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D


Team News

Ravel Morrison celebrates scoring for Derby County against Salford City in the EFL Cup on August 10, 2021© Reuters

Derby striker Colin Kazim-Richards (Achilles) and midfielder Krystian Bielik (knee) remain ruled out with injuries, though the latter is hoping to return to training before the end of this month.

Rams trio Tom Lawrence, Max Bird and Ravel Morrison, who all started on the bench against West Brom, will be hoping they can force their way back into the first XI.

Rooney decided to switch to a 5-3-2 formation against the Baggies in midweek, however he may revert back to a 4-3-3 system, which could see Lawrence join Sam Baldock and Kamil Jozwiak in a three-man attack.

As for Stoke, 22-year-old Demeaco Duhaney could be handed his debut at right wing-back as Smith is ruled out due to suspension.

Tyrese Campbell (knee) and Tashan Oakley-Boothe (back) are close to returning from injury but are expected to miss out this weekend, while Nick Powell remains doubtful with a thigh strain.

O'Neill is not expected to make too many changes to his starting lineup, so the likes of Vrancic and Romaine Sawyers are set to remain in central midfield ahead of Sam Clucas and Alfie Doughty.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Davies, Jagielka, Buchanan; Shinnie, Bird, Knight; Lawrence, Baldock, Jozwiak

Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Bursik; Ostigard, Souttar, Wilmot; Duhaney, Sawyers, Allen, Vrancic, Tymon; Brown, Surridge


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 0-1 Stoke City

Although Stoke have struggled at Pride Park in recent seasons, their current form is much better than Derby's heading into Saturday's game and that could help them in their quest of claiming all three points.

The hosts have kept a clean sheet in three of their last five league games, though we can see the Potters scoring this weekend and securing a narrow victory.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Stoke

Derby County
20.0%
Draw
21.1%
Stoke City
58.9%
90
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General view of Stoke City's bet365 Stadium taken March 2018
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth462813578413797
2Derby CountyDerby462881078374192
3Bolton WanderersBolton462512986513587
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462591289612884
5Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4622111379562377
6Barnsley4621131282641876
7Lincoln CityLincoln4620141265402574
8Blackpool4621101565481773
9Stevenage4619141357461171
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe461714156055565
11Leyton Orient461811175355-265
12Wigan AthleticWigan462010166356762
13Exeter CityExeter461710194661-1561
14Northampton TownNorthampton46179205766-960
15Bristol Rovers46169215268-1657
16Charlton AthleticCharlton461120156465-153
17Reading461611196870-253
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge461212223961-2248
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46139243567-3248
20Burton Albion461210243967-2846
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham46128264165-2444
RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
RPort Vale461011254174-3341
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4679304181-4030


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