Juventude will hope to move into a spot in the Copa Sudamericana group stage on Tuesday when they head to Sao Paulo to battle Corinthians from Corinthians Arena in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
Timao have won their last three league games heading into this fixture, while Juve have drawn their previous three matches in this competition.
Match preview
© Reuters
As we hit the halfway point of the domestic campaign in Brazil, one of the most successful clubs in league history are starting to turn their season around after a difficult month of July.
Corinthians have been involved in many close games, but lately, they are finding a way to pull ahead in these fixtures, beating both Gremio and Athletico Paranaense by a 1-0 score over the final two weekends in August to move into sixth place.
Sylvinho was a solid left-back during his playing days, helping this team win the Brasileiro Serie A in 1998, and also capturing the UEFA Champions League twice with Barcelona.
While he has yet to win a trophy as a manager, he has employed the same intelligent and sound defensive tactics with this side, the same ones which earned him a spot on the Premier League PFA Team of the Year as a player at Arsenal in the 2000-01 campaign.
Todo Poderoso have conceded the fewest goals (15) in the Brazilian top flight this season, collecting nine clean sheets over that period, thanks in large part to the tactical moves made by their manager.
Lately, they have been saving their best for the second half, scoring their winning goal last weekend with 11 minutes left, with their last three goals domestically coming in half number two.
© Reuters
After a 13-year absence from the Brazilian top flight, Juventude have dug themselves out of an early deficit in the league standings and a number of their league fixtures as well.
In August, they fell behind by a goal in each of their last four games but were able to fight their way back and earn a 2-1 win over Bragantino before ending the month with draws against Fortaleza and Sao Paulo and then coming back to draw Flu on Thursday thanks to an own goal from Lucca.
Their resiliency is something that manager Marquinhos Santos did not see a lot of in the early stages of the season, when his side earned only two points out of a possible 12 from their first four games, going goalless in three of those encounters.
Juve are currently four points clear of the relegation zone, and they have failed to score in four road matches this year, although they were able to erase an early deficit versus Braga with a pair of goals four minutes apart, their only win away from home so far in Serie A this year.
While Corinthians have scored plenty of second-half goals, it has been a totally different story for Papo, who have allowed 22 goals on the season thus far, 17 of which have come following half time.
In their five previous visits to Sao Paulo, Juventude have only earned one victory against Timao back in the 2004 Serie A season, when they came away with a 2-1 win.
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Jo scored the winning goal for Corinthians in their 1-0 win over Gremio, his first goal since scoring the winner against Chapecoense back on July 8, putting him in a tie with Elton from Cuiaba and Breno Lopes from Palmeiras.
Cassio picked up his seventh clean sheet for the club last weekend, while Vintinho collected his second assist of the year on their winning goal, putting him in a tie for second with Fabio Santos and one behind Gustavo Silva.
Du Queiroz replaced Fagner in the starting 11 at right-back in their final match in August last weekend, with the only other change being Luan starting instead of Adson.
Ricardo Bueno has two goals in his last three matches for Juve, while Vitor Mendes has been a solid central defender for the club, currently on loan from the league leaders Atletico Mineiro.
Three new players got the start from their match with Sao Paulo to their game against Fluminense, as Chico replaced Marcos Vinicios while they played with three players in attack and only four at the back, with Capixaba replacing Juan Quintero and Paulinho taking the place of Wagner.
In their last league victory in the middle of August, Wagner scored twice, while Marcelo Carne collected his last clean sheet in a 1-0 win over Chapecoense in late July.
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Fabio Santos, Gil, Pedro, Queiroz; Vitinho, Cantillo, Gabriel, Giuliano; Marquinhos, Jo
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Carne; Matheus, Forster, Mendes, Macedo; Matheuzinho, Jesus, Castilho; Capixaba, Bueno, Paulinho
We say: Corinthians 1-1 Juventude
Both sides are used to playing in some very tight matches in the Brasileiro Serie A as 16 of the 18 games played by Corinthians were decided by a goal or fewer while 14 of the 18 Juve games had the same outcome, so we should not expect anything more from this encounter.
Corinthians have jumped out to a lead in each of their last three league games, but Juve have shown that they can overcome many one-goal deficits.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 50.52%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 23.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
