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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 43.03%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.
Result | ||
Swansea City | Draw | Derby County |
43.03% | 27.53% | 29.43% |
Both teams to score 47.58% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.22% | 57.77% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.49% | 78.51% |
Swansea City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.41% | 26.59% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.19% | 61.81% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.82% | 35.18% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.07% | 71.93% |
Score Analysis |
Swansea City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 12.39% 2-1 @ 8.57% 2-0 @ 8.21% 3-1 @ 3.79% 3-0 @ 3.62% 3-2 @ 1.98% 4-1 @ 1.25% 4-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.02% Total : 43.03% | 1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 9.35% 2-2 @ 4.48% Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.53% | 0-1 @ 9.77% 1-2 @ 6.76% 0-2 @ 5.11% 1-3 @ 2.36% 0-3 @ 1.78% 2-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 2.1% Total : 29.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
P | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 45 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 80 | 41 | 39 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 85 | 53 | 32 | 89 |
4 | Southampton | 44 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 85 | 61 | 24 | 84 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 44 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 72 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 77 | 61 | 16 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 44 | 19 | 12 | 13 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 69 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 43 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 63 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 60 | 4 | 63 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 44 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 62 |
12 | Bristol City | 44 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 59 |
13 | Sunderland | 44 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 56 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 44 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 62 | -5 | 56 |
15 | Watford | 44 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 53 |
16 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 53 |
17 | Millwall | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 53 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 50 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 49 |
20 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 44 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 69 | -11 | 48 |
21 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 47 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 46 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 44 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 44 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 44 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 32 | 85 | -53 | 24 |
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