Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 46.92%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 24.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.86%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
