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Union Berlin logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 26
May 17, 2020 at 5pm UK
An der alten Forsterei
Bayern logo

Union Berlin
0 - 2
Bayern


Lenz (12'), Schlotterbeck (51')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Lewandowski (40' pen.), Pavard (80')
Davies (37')

Preview: Union Berlin vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and league leaders Bayern Munich, including team news and predicted lineups.

Bayern Munich will resume their charge for an eighth successive league title when taking on Union Berlin at a behind-closed-doors Stadion An der Alten Forsterei on Sunday.

Following a two-month break owing to the coronavirus pandemic, the reigning champions and current pacesetters are looking to maintain their advantage at the top of the division.


Match preview

Bayern Munich players celebrate Thomas Muller's goal against Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League on December 11, 2019© Reuters

The prolonged pause in proceedings come at a bad moment for Bayern given that they were on an incredible run of form at the time of the shutdown, winning 10 of their last 11 matches.

The most recent of those wins came at home to Augsburg on March 8, although it remains to be seen exactly what shape Bayern's players will be in 70 days on from that last outing.

As well as swatting aside Chelsea 3-0 in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie and overcoming Schalke 04 in the German Cup quarter-finals, Bayern have also gone 11 games without defeat in the league.

Incredibly, they have collected 31 points from the last 33 on offer to leapfrog Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig into top spot.

They head into gameweek 26 with a four-point lead on closest challengers Dortmund, whom they still have to play before the end of this rather unique campaign.

No team in any competition has stopped Bayern from winning since Borussia Monchengladbach in early December, but this may be the perfect time for Union to face the champions.

Philippe Coutinho in Bundesliga action for Bayern Munich on February 29, 2020© Reuters

Bayern may have crushed Hoffenheim 6-0 in their most recent away league match, but that was nearly three months ago and Hansi Flick's side will surely take time to get going again.

The same will be true for Union, of course, given that they have also had little time to get themselves back to full fitness, but the break has given them a chance to refocus.

Die Eisernen followed up a cup exit at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen with a 3-1 reverse against Freiburg in their last match, leaving them 11th in the division.

They are eight points above the relegation playoff spot with nine games to go, while Wolfsburg in seventh place - enough for European football - are only six points better off.

Union, much like Bayern, still have plenty to play for, then, and they certainly have the ability to give the champions a run for their money on home soil - even if this match is behind closed doors.

Urs Fischer's side have won five of their last eight Bundesliga home matches, keeping a clean sheet in each of these five wins, suggesting that an upset should not be entirely ruled out.

Union Berlin's Bundesliga form: LWLWDL
Union Berlin's form (all competitions): WLWDLL

Bayern Munich's Bundesliga form: WDWWWW
Bayern Munich's form (all competitions): WWWWWW


Team News

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski celebrates scoring their first goal on November 6, 2019© Reuters

The two-month break has given Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski, the division's top scorer with 25 goals, a chance to recover from a knee injury.

Jann-Fiete Arp, Kingsley Coman and Ivan Perisic are also fully fit, but Philippe Coutinho and Corentin Tolisso have undergone ankle surgery and are out for the foreseeable future.

Niklas Sule may play again this season after being given time to recover from a long-term knee injury, though this game will come too soon.

As for the home side, Yunus Malli is not back in full training after recently testing positive for COVID-19.

Sheraldo Becker will miss around a month with a thigh injury, meanwhile, and Marvin Friedrich is banned.

However, captain Christopher Trimmel will be back involved after serving a suspension before the coronavirus-enforced shutdown.

Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Subotic, Hubner, Schlotterbeck; Trimmel, Gentner, Andrich, Lenz; Ingvartsen, Bulter; Andersson

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Alaba, Boateng, Davies; Thiago, Kimmich; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Union Berlin 0-1 Bayern Munich

Bayern cannot afford to slip up as they go in search of an eighth successive title, while Union still have an outside chance of qualifying for Europe. The hosts have been impressive at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei of late, but we are backing the visitors to grind out another win in what will be just the second competitive meeting between the sides.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 77.12%. A draw had a probability of 13.6% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 9.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (8.77%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.94%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (2.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Bayern Munich in this match.


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Union Berlin captain Christopher Trimmel pictured in July 2019
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3Stuttgart31204770383264
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12Wolfsburg3197153751-1434
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