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[monks data]
Augsburg logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 27
Apr 3, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
WWK Arena
Hoffenheim logo

Augsburg
2 - 1
Hoffenheim

Vargas (8'), Hahn (23')
Hahn (90+1')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Skov (86')
Samassekou (37')

Preview: Augsburg vs. Hoffenheim - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Augsburg and Hoffenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Augsburg will leapfrog Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga table if they are victorious when the two sides meet on Saturday.

The clubs are currently separated by just a point in the standings, with Hoffenheim in 11th on 30 points and Augsburg in 13th on 29.


Match preview

Hoffenheim manager Sebastian Hoeness celebrates with his players after their victory over Bayern Munich on September 27, 2020© Reuters

Both teams started the campaign strongly and occupied the top two spots in the Bundesliga table after two matches. However, they have each struggled for consistency since then and now find themselves far behind the European spots and not totally clear of relegation danger.

Hoffenheim suffered a surprise 2-1 defeat to lowly Mainz before the international break, their second successive loss after four games unbeaten.

Only Schalke (69) and FC Koln (46) have conceded more goals than Sebastian Hoeness's side this season (45), while Die Kraichgauer have won just one of their last six away games.

However, the visitors can take heart from their impressive recent record against Augsburg, having only lost of one of their last 11 meetings with Fuggerstadter, while they have won on their five most recent trips to the WWK Arena.

Hoffenheim were 3-1 winners in this season's reverse fixture in December thanks to a brace from Florian Grillitsch and Ihlas Bebou's finish.

FC Augsburg coach Heiko Herrlich before the match on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Like their opponents, Augsburg are also struggling for form due to their defensive troubles; Heiko Herrlich's side have won just two of their last eight games and have kept a solitary clean sheet in 12 matches.

They were beaten 2-0 by Freiburg before the international break, having 20 shots against Breisgau-Brasilianer but failing to make any of them count.

However, Augsburg have lost just one of their last four home matches, which came against third-placed Wolfsburg.

There is also cause for optimism as after this weekend, their next two games come against the bottom two sides - Schalke and Arminia Bielefeld.

Augsburg Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Hoffenheim Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L


Team News

Hoffenheim coach Sebastian Hoeness pictured on February 18, 2021© Reuters

Hoeness is expected to make just one change to the Augsburg team, with Mads Pedersen likely to replace Robert Gumny at left-back, with the Dane back to full fitness after a muscle injury.

It means that there will once again be no place for Reece Oxford, who has played in all but one of Augsburg's eight wins this season, but has been sacrificed since Hoeness switched to a back four.

Tobias Strobl spent five years at Hoffenheim before departing in 2016 and has missed just one game for Augsburg this season; he will partner Rani Khedira, brother of Sami, in holding midfield.

Only four players have scored more Bundesliga goals than Andrej Kramaric this season so Hoffenheim will be hopeful that the Croatian is available after he picked up an ankle injury on international duty.

After failing to help England Under-21s get out of their group at the European Championships, Ryan Sessegnon will be keen to win his spot back in the side after dropping to the bench against Mainz.

Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Pedersen; Strobl, Khedira, Caligiuri, Benes, Richter; Hahn

Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Vogt, Grillitsch, Richards; Kaderabek, Rudy, Samassekou, John; Baumgartner; Bebou, Kramaric


SM words green background

We say: Augsburg 2-2 Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim look to be the stronger side, but their matches have been notoriously hard to predict this season due to their inconsistent nature. Augsburg need a result, and with both sides leaking goals, we think that this one will be a high-scoring draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 21.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.59%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.88%), while for an Augsburg win it was 2-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Augsburg vs Hoffenheim

Augsburg
60.0%
Draw
30.0%
Hoffenheim
10.0%
10
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Bayer Leverkusen coach Peter Bosz pictured on February 21, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen31256077225581
2Bayern MunichBayern31223689385169
3Stuttgart31204770383264
4RB Leipzig31195773353862
5Borussia DortmundDortmund31169659392057
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt31111284742545
7Freiburg31117134355-1240
8Augsburg31109124852-439
9Hoffenheim31116145563-839
10Heidenheim31910124452-837
11Werder Bremen31107144150-937
12Wolfsburg3197153751-1434
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach31711135360-732
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin3186172650-2430
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum31612133762-2530
16Mainz 05Mainz31513133249-1728
17FC Koln31411162454-3023
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3138203073-4317


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