Looking to snap their three-game winless run, Arouca lock horns with Portimonense at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca in round 32 of the Primeira Liga on Saturday.
The visitors, on the other hand, are yet to pick up a win on the road this year and will head into the game desperate to end this dry spell and move into the top half of the standings.
Match preview
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Arouca suffered yet another injurious result in their race to beat the drop when they fell to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Vizela at the Estadio do FC Vizela last Friday.
After Guilherme Schettine broke the deadlock in the 38th minute, Alan Ruiz restored parity four minutes after the half-time break, but Schettine struck his second of the game in the 72nd minute to hand the hosts all three points.
Arouca head into the weekend winless in each of their most recent three outings, picking up one point from a possible nine, while they have managed just one win in their last eight games since a 3-1 victory at Vitoria de Guimaraes on March 19.
Armando Evangelista's men have won six, drawn nine and lost 16 of their 31 games this season to collect 27 points and sit 15th in the Primeira Liga standings, just two points above last-placed Belenenses.
While Arouca will be looking to arrest their slump in form and steer clear of the drop zone, they have struggled to get going on home turf, where they currently hold the division's joint-worst record with 15 points from 15 games.
Elsewhere, Portimonense returned to winning ways last weekend when they saw off a dogged Moreirense side 1-0 at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao.
After Brazilian forward Welinton Junior broke the deadlock with a 14th-minute strike, Paulo Sergio's men put on a solid defensive performance to see out the win and deny the visitors a third consecutive victory.
Prior to that, Portimonense suffered their heaviest defeat of the season as they were thrashed 7-0 by Porto on April 16, when Mehdi Taremi and Evanilson netted three and two goals respectively to hand the league leaders an emphatic victory.
With 35 points from 31 games, the Portimao-based outfit are currently 11th in the league standings, but could rise as high as seventh place with all three points on Saturday.
However, they are yet to taste victory on the road this year, losing five and claiming three draws in eight away games since beating Famalicao on penalties in the Taca de Portugal on December 21.
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Team News
Arouca will have to make do with the absence of several key players down the spine of the team as the likes of Wellington Nem (muscle), Jose Manuel Velazquez (knee) and Moses Yaw (muscle) all continue their spells on the sidelines.
Other names on the Arouquenses injury table include Portuguese midfielder Pedro Moreira, who picked up a knee problem in March's game against Tondela.
Goalkeeper Fernando Augusto has been out of action since last October through a long-term injury, while Ivory Coast midfielder Eboue Kouassi saw his season come to an end after suffering an ACL injury back in February.
Meanwhile, Portimonense remain without the services of Nigerian midfielder Adewale Sapara after the 27-year-old came off injured against Benfica back in March.
With his winner against Moreirense last time out, Junior has now scored in two consecutive games and we expect the 28-year-old forward to lead the attack once again.
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Braga; Esgaio, Basso, Galovic; Thales, L Silva, Moreira, Simao; Oleques, Bukia, A Silva
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Samuel; Moufi, Rocha, Pedrao, Relvas; Ewerton, Fernandes, Carlinhos; Nakajima, Angulo, Junior
We say: Arouca 1-0 Portimonense
Arouca have endured a horrid campaign this season and find themselves just one point above the drop zone with three games to play. However, we are tipping them to grind out a slender victory against a floundering Portimonense side who are yet to taste victory on the road this year.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 47.97%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 26.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.
