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Preview: Ons Jabeur vs. Aryna Sabalenka - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Wimbledon semi-final between Ons Jabeur and Aryna Sabalenka, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Ons Jabeur will be aiming to reach her second successive Wimbledon final when she faces Aryna Sabalenka on Centre Court on Thursday.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, remains on course to win her second Grand Slam after breaking her duck at the Australian Open earlier this year.


Match preview

Ons Jabeur in action at Wimbledon on July 9, 2022© Reuters

Despite backing up her runners-up medal at Wimbledon last year by achieving the same feat at the US Open two months later, Jabeur is yet to triumph on one of the four grandest stages in tennis.

The 28-year-old is arguably playing the most fluently on the women's tour at present, though, with her combination of ball-striking ability and intricacy helping over her overcome more physical opponents in the shape of Petra Kvitova and Elena Rybakina in the previous two rounds.

After dismantling the two-time champion Kvitova 6-0 6-3 in the fourth round, Jabeur must have been fearing the worst when falling one set down to Rybakina, who came from behind to defeat the Tunisian in last year's final. This time around, the Kazakh broke back in the final game of the first set, before edging the ensuing tie-breaker.

However, revenge is a dish best served cold, with Jabeur surprisingly overpowering her much taller opponent thereafter, while retaining her usual deft usage of backhand slice and drop shots whenever possible.

Both players worked nine break points for themselves across the course of the match, but Jabeur converted five compared to her opponent's tally of two, which ultimately proved to be the difference between them on the day. She will need to be equally ruthless to take out Sabalenka and make the final once again.

Aryna Sabalenka pictured at Wimbledon on July 2, 2021© Reuters

Sabalenka, on the other hand, had a much easier time of things on Wednesday, as she comfortably dispatched Madison Keys in straight sets.

The Belarussian, who reached the semi-final at Wimbledon two years ago before being excluded from competing last year as part of the ban on Russian and Belarussian players, took control from the very first game of the match when her sweet backhand broke her opponent at the fourth time of asking.

Keys, who came into the quarter-final with plenty of confidence after winning Eastbourne last month, made more a fight of things in the second set, breaking Sabalenka midway through before throwing away a 40-0 lead in the very next game to be broken straight back.

From that moment it soon became clear there was only going to be one winner, and Sabalenka will fancy her chances of producing another dominant display on Thursday, despite likely having to contest against a pro-Jabeur crowd at the All England Club.


Tournament so far

Ons Jabeur:

First round: vs. Magdalena French 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Zhuoxuan Bai 6-1 6-1
Third round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 3-6 6-3 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Petra Kvitova 6-0 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-7(5) 6-4 6-1

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Panna Udvardy 6-3 6-1
Second round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 2-6 7-5 6-2
Third round: vs. Anna Blinkova 6-2 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-0
Quarter-final: vs. Madison Keys 6-2 6-4


Head To Head

French Open (2020) - Third round: Jabeur wins 7-6(7) 2-6 6-3
Abu Dhabi (2021) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-2 6-4
Wimbledon (2021) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka wins 6-4 6-3
WTA Finals (2022) - Round Robin: Sabalenka wins 3-6 7-6(5) 7-5

Since losing to Jabeur in the third round of the French Open three years ago, Sabalenka has won three straight matches against the Tunisian, including at the quarter-final stage at Wimbledon two years ago.

Both players are probably competing at a higher standard than they were then, but the Belarussian must hold the psychological edge as a result of her excellent head-to-head record.


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We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets

Based on how they have played throughout this tournament, particularly in their last two matches, this could easily be the final, with those in attendance at Centre Court potentially in store for a treat providing that both players can recover from competing only one day before this semi-final clash.

Jabeur will almost certainly be the crowd favourite due to the variety that she brings to the court as well as her infectious personality, but we can envisage Sabalenka narrowly prevailing from a match that could easily go the distance.

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