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Preview: Katie Boulter vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Wimbledon third-round match between Katie Boulter and Elena Rybakina, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

The British number one squares off with the reigning Wimbledon champion in Saturday's headline third-round match, as Katie Boulter pits her wits against Elena Rybakina on Centre Court.

Boulter eliminated Bulgaria's Viktoriya Tomova to advance to the third round and equal her best-ever SW19 finish, while Rybakina battled past a physically impaired Alize Cornet in straight sets last time out.


Match preview

Katie Boulter reacts at Wimbledon on July 5, 2023© Reuters

Keeping the momentum going from winning her first-ever WTA Tour crown at the recent Nottingham Open, Boulter is more than underlining her status as British number one and recovered from a second-set blip to defeat to Tomova in three sets during Thursday's second-round contest.

Despite suffering a bagel in the opening set, Tomova showed no signs of mental fragility as she took the contest to the distance against the odds, but Boulter - who entered the tournament as a wild card - displayed her proficiency at the net to get the job done in one hour and 43 minutes.

The British number one brought up 15 chances to break Tomova's serve on the day - converting five of them - in addition to winning 75% of points at the net to delight the SW19 crowd, who will witness the 26-year-old do battle in round three for the second year running.

A third-round exit to Harmony Tan in 2022 represents Boulter's deepest run at a major tournament to date, and the British grass remains a kind surface for the world number 89, who has affirmed that she enters Saturday's blockbuster encounter with nothing to lose - all too aware that she will possess the underdog label for the third-round meeting.

Elena Rybakina reacts at Wimbledon on July 4, 2023© Reuters

Much was made of Elena Rybakina's condition before the Wimbledon champion began the defence of her major title, as the Kazakhstani's bid for French Open stardom ended prematurely due to a respiratory virus, which was evidently still plaguing her in the early stages of her opener with Shelby Rogers.

However, Rybakina's prowess came to the fore after she dropped the opening set of her tournament, and in her second-round affair with Alize Cornet, it was the French veteran who was hampered physically, suffering an awkward fall at 5-5 in the second set.

A retirement was ostensibly on the cards as a tearful Cornet trudged to her chair to receive treatment - having stayed down for several minutes - but she battled through the pain to take the champion to a tie-breaker, where a backhand winner from Rybakina punched her ticket to round three.

The third seed saved all six of the break points that Cornet was able to fashion on her serve - albeit while finishing with a hefty 40 unforced errors compared to just 12 for the Frenchwoman, such is the nature of her high-risk style - but she more than made up for those mistakes with a total of 36 winners.

Either 13th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia or giant killer Sorana Cirstea - who bested Jelena Ostapenko in round two - will await the victor of this match in the fourth round, and Rybakina already has an incentive to set up a tie with Haddad Maia, who sent her compatriot Yulia Putintseva packing in round one.


Tournament so far

Katie Boulter:

First round: vs. Daria Saville 7-6[4] 6-2
Second round: vs. Viktoriya Tomova 6-0 3-6 6-3

Elena Rybakina:

First round: vs. Shelby Rogers 4-6 6-1 6-2
Second round: vs. Alize Cornet 6-2 7-6[2]


Head To Head

Yet to lock horns on the WTA Tour, Saturday's contest will represent the first-ever meeting between Boulter and Rybakina, and the former could hardly have wished for a better stage for their maiden showdown.

Furthermore, Rybakina has never faced a British player during the main draw of Wimbledon, but her most recent contest against a home favourite ended in a straightforward 6-1 6-4 win over Harriet Dart in November's Billie Jean King Cup finals.


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We say: Rybakina to win in two sets

The Centre Court crowd is often a powerful thing for British players at Wimbledon, and with Rybakina potentially still not firing on all cylinders, grass-court specialist Boulter can hand the defending champion a scare or two.

However, the aggressive and powerful Rybakina can easily overwhelm most foes standing in her way, and with Boulter failing to take two-thirds of her break points against Tomova, a similarly poor percentage against the third seed could see her journey come to an end in straight sets.

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