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Preview: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Holger Rune - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's ATP Finals round-robin match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Both aiming to bounce back from opening defeats at the ATP World Tour Finals, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune clash in Tuesday afternoon's Green group battle in Turin.

The Greek sixth seed was swept aside by Jannik Sinner in their opening contest, while Rune pushed Novak Djokovic all the way but eventually succumbed to a three-set loss.


Match preview

Stefanos Tsitsipas pictured at the ATP Finals on November 12, 2023© Reuters

Coming up against the Turin poster boy in his opening ATP Finals encounter, 2019 champion Tsitsipas sought to improve on a record of five wins from his opening seven top-level meetings with Sinner, who had come up trumps in the most recent showdown between the pair in Rotterdam.

Tsitsipas held his own against Sinner and kept the mistakes to a minimum - only posting five unforced errors and not a single double fault - but the Italian's blistering serves and 21 winners proved decisive in a 6-4 6-4 success on Sunday.

While finding the mark with some tremendous backhands on the hard court, Tsitsipas was also let down by a few shots on that side and did not fashion a single opportunity to break the 22-year-old, whom he respectfully congratulated on a brilliant opening display following the match.

Having gone down to Sinner in straight sets, Tsitsipas - who now holds a 51-23 record for the year - is already rock bottom of the Green group standings below the Italian, Rune and year-end number one Djokovic, raising fears of another early elimination.

After coming up trumps on his debut in 2019, Tsitsipas has been knocked out in the round-robin stage three times on the trot and will be consigned to his fate should he fail to make amends against Rune, who also has one or two wrongs to right after an epic battle with Djokovic.

Holger Rune reacts at the ATP Finals on November 12, 2023© Reuters

Heading into his debut ATP Finals campaign, Rune had won a set off of Djokovic in each of their four top-tier matches and boasted a 50% success rate against the 24-time Grand Slam winner, whom he overcame in last year's Paris Masters final and May's Italian Open.

Once again, the Scandinavian starlet would give Djokovic an excellent run for his money, but as he ran out of steam towards the close of their three-hour slog, his esteemed foe took advantage to subject Rune to a 6-7[4] 7-6[1] 3-6 defeat in the evening's headline encounter.

In doing so, Djokovic assured himself of the year-end number one ranking for the eighth time while condemning Rune to a losing start to his inaugural year-end tournament, although the 20-year-old could be particularly proud of his efforts, having outgunned Djokovic on the aces front with 18 to 10, albeit while being punished for seven double faults.

Forty-eight winners also played their part in Rune pushing Djokovic to his limit, and salvation is still on the cards for the 2003-born protege, who occupies third place in the Green group standings and is capable of rising into a knockout berth with a first-ever ATP Finals triumph on Tuesday.

Rune has vowed that he and newly-appointed coach Boris Becker will continue to "fight" while a semi-final place is at stake, and while he was pleased with how he handed the physical demands of his battle with Djokovic, it remains to be seen if there will be any lingering effects for the eighth seed on Tuesday.


Tournament so far

Stefanos Tsistipas:

Round robin: vs. Jannik Sinner 4-6 4-6

Holger Rune:

Round robin: vs. Novak Djokovic 6-7[4] 7-6[1] 3-6


Head To Head

French Open (2022) - Fourth round: Rune wins 7-5 3-6 6-3 6-4
Stockholm Open (2022) - Final: Rune wins 6-4 6-4

While Rune and Tsitsipas are yet to cross paths in 2023, the pair met on two occasions last year - when the former was still a teenager - but despite his inexperience, Rune pulled off two giant killings of the 2019 ATP Finals champion.

During a sparkling French Open debut, a 19-year-old Rune downed Tsitsipas in four sets during their fourth-round battle, ensuring that two teenagers would be present in a Grand Slam quarter-final for the first time since 1994 as Carlos Alcaraz also progressed.

The pair reunited a few months later on indoor hard courts in the final of the Stockholm Open, where Rune had the Greek's number yet again and clinched his second ATP Tour title with a 6-4 6-4 victory in 92 minutes, limiting Tsitsipas to just one break point which he comfortably beat away.


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We say: Rune to win in three sets

Neither Tsitsipas nor Rune gave too much away in their opening losses - simply falling to the better player on the day - but the Dane left it all out on the court against Djokovic and would do well to target his opponent's inconsistent backhand.

Capable of hitting an array of winners from all angles too, Rune's power has already proven too hot for Tsitsipas to handle on two occasions, and we expect the 20-year-old to make it three for three against the 2019 champion, who seems set to bow out at the first hurdle again.

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Novak Djokovic celebrates after winning his group stage match against Denmark's Holger Rune on November 12, 2023
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