Two sides on the edge of the European spots meet in the first Bundesliga action of the weekend on Friday evening as RB Leipzig welcome FC Koln to the Red Bull Arena.
The hosts are sat seventh in the table, one point and one place behind the visitors, having been overtaken by their upcoming opponents after differing results last weekend.
Match preview
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RB Leipzig's winning streak - perhaps predictably - came to a halt at the home of reigning champions and current leaders Bayern Munich last weekend.
It was a valiant effort from the travelling side, twice equalising through Andre Silva and Christopher Nkunku after likely candidates Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski had given Bayern the lead.
However, the hosts would take the lead for the third and final time when defender Josko Gvardiol unwittingly turned a cross from Serge Gnabry into his net.
The away side did what they could to bounce back for the third time, but were not able to and slipped to seventh in the standings.
The result ended a four-match winning streak for Die Roten Bullen, but was a considerable improvement on the 4-1 thrashing they received from the champions earlier in the season, and did little to diminish what has been a strong start to new manager Domenico Tedesco's tenure.
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It was Koln who displaced Leipzig from their previous position of sixth in the table, after a victory at home to Freiburg moved them up from eighth.
Taking on another surprise success story this campaign in Christian Streich's side was never going to be an easy game, so a 1-0 win courtesy of Anthony Modeste's 14th goal of the season was a great result, and one that reduced the gap to Freiburg to just a single point.
It also put an end to a slight blip for the Billy Goats prior to the two-week rest, when they were hammered 4-0 by Bayern, knocked out of the DFB-Pokal at home to 2.Bundesliga side Hamburger SV, and held to a 2-2 draw at newly-promoted VfL Bochum.
They will now be looking to push on and build some momentum; a victory over another European hopeful on Friday would be a significant step in doing just that.
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Team News
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Tyler Adams missed Leipzig's loss at Bayern with a thigh injury sustained on international duty and remains a doubt for this game, though his return to the XI is far from certain considering Konrad Laimer's recent form.
Mohamed Simakan is also an injury doubt, with Lukas Klostermann set to continue in his place.
In better news for Tedesco, Dani Olmo's return from a long injury layoff has been a success and he should be fit enough to start again on Friday.
There are fewer injury worries for Koln, with Julian Chabot the only absence after a positive COVID-19 test.
Streich will likely stick to his recent winning formula of a 4-1-3-2 with the precise personnel of the midfield the only possible change.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Simakan, Orban, Gvardiol; Klostermann, Laimer, Kampl, Angelino; Nkunku, Olmo; Silva
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Hubers, Hector; Ozcan; Thielmann, Ljubicic, Kainz; Modeste, Uth
We say: RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Koln
Whilst Koln's recent form - and season as a whole - has been very impressive, the hosts appear to have rediscovered their mojo under the tutelage of Tedesco. They also have an enviable home record and, on this occasion, the visitors may find that they cannot quite match up to the talent in the Leipzig squad.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 65.23%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 15.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 1-0 (8.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.69%), while for a FC Koln win it was 1-2 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
