Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.74%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 19.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (6.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
57.74% ( -0.01) | 23.01% ( 0) | 19.25% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 50.47% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.23% ( 0.02) | 48.77% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.13% ( 0.01) | 70.87% ( -0.01) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.38% ( 0) | 16.62% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.55% ( 0) | 46.45% ( 0) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.53% ( 0.03) | 39.47% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.84% ( 0.02) | 76.16% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
1-0 @ 11.77% 2-0 @ 10.56% 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.32% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.87% 4-0 @ 2.84% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.64% 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.01% Total : 57.74% | 1-1 @ 10.94% 0-0 @ 6.56% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( 0) Other @ 0.94% Total : 23% | 0-1 @ 6.1% 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.84% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.58% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 19.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |