Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 36.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
37.35% | 26.57% | 36.07% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 52.3% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.38% ( -0) | 52.62% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.73% ( -0) | 74.27% ( 0) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.7% ( -0) | 27.3% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.25% ( -0) | 62.74% ( 0) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.94% ( -0) | 28.05% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.29% ( -0) | 63.71% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 9.94% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.2% 2-0 @ 6.45% 3-1 @ 3.55% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.79% 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.15% 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.09% Total : 37.35% | 1-1 @ 12.63% 0-0 @ 7.66% 2-2 @ 5.21% 3-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.56% | 0-1 @ 9.74% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.03% 0-2 @ 6.19% 1-3 @ 3.4% 0-3 @ 2.62% 2-3 @ 2.21% 1-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.8% Total : 36.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 35 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 78 | 22 | 56 | 90 |
2 | GironaGirona | 35 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 75 | 44 | 31 | 75 |
3 | Barcelona | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 43 | 27 | 73 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 35 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 70 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 57 | 35 | 22 | 62 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 35 | 13 | 54 |
8 | Valencia | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 48 |
9 | Villarreal | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 59 | 60 | -1 | 48 |
10 | Getafe | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 35 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 47 | 49 | -2 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 35 | 11 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
15 | Mallorca | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 35 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 35 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 35 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 34 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 35 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 49 | -25 | 29 |
R | Granada | 35 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 36 | 68 | -32 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 35 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |