Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 58.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Sevilla had a probability of 17.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.42%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Sevilla win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
58.84% ( 0.67) | 23.32% ( -0.49) | 17.85% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 47.15% ( 1.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.06% ( 1.61) | 51.95% ( -1.61) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.31% ( 1.37) | 73.69% ( -1.37) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.63% ( 0.83) | 17.37% ( -0.83) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.23% ( 1.43) | 47.78% ( -1.43) |
Sevilla Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.07% ( 0.73) | 42.94% ( -0.73) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.76% ( 0.61) | 79.24% ( -0.61) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
1-0 @ 13.05% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 11.42% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 5.64% ( 0.21) 4-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.56% Total : 58.83% | 1-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 4.08% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.74% Total : 23.31% | 0-1 @ 6.31% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.75% Total : 17.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
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