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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
76.54% ( -0.64) | 13.65% ( 0.44) | 9.81% ( 0.22) |
Both teams to score 59.38% ( -1.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.7% ( -1.65) | 25.3% ( 1.66) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.69% ( -2.18) | 45.31% ( 2.18) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.56% ( -0.44) | 5.44% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.73% ( -1.3) | 21.27% ( 1.31) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.79% ( -0.93) | 37.21% ( 0.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.01% ( -0.93) | 73.99% ( 0.94) |
Score Analysis |
PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.46) 3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.21) 4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.17) 5-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.15) 6-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.11) 6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.16) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.83% Total : 76.54% | 1-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.27% Total : 13.65% | 1-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 2% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.61% Total : 9.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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