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Scottish Challenge Cup | Quarter-Finals
Nov 18, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Park Hall Stadium
Arbroath

New Saints
4 - 1
Arbroath

Clark (29'), Young (37', 85'), Cieslewicz (80')
Williams (45')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Bird (9')
Lyon (20'), Gold (77')
Coverage of the Scottish Challenge Cup Quarter-Finals clash between The New Saints and Arbroath.

Form, Standings, Stats

The New Saints

All competitions
Scottish Challenge Cup
Last Game: Newtown 0-2 New Saints
Saturday, November 4 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Arbroath

All competitions
Scottish Challenge Cup
Last Game: Airdrieonians 2-0 Arbroath
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in Scottish Championship

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 80.73%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Arbroath had a probability of 6.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.77%), while for an Arbroath win it was 1-2 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.

Result
The New SaintsDrawArbroath
80.73% (-0.061000000000007 -0.06) 12.38% (0.152 0.15) 6.89% (-0.090000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 49.53% (-1.361 -1.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.94% (-1.314 -1.31)30.06% (1.314 1.31)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.73% (-1.598 -1.6)51.27% (1.599 1.6)
The New Saints Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.31% (-0.26899999999999 -0.27)5.69% (0.2691 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
78.01% (-0.777 -0.78)21.99% (0.776 0.78)
Arbroath Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.51% (-1.289 -1.29)47.49% (1.289 1.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.15% (-0.978 -0.98)82.85% (0.97799999999999 0.98)
Score Analysis
    The New Saints 80.72%
    Arbroath 6.89%
    Draw 12.38%
The New SaintsDrawArbroath
2-0 @ 11.09% (0.46 0.46)
3-0 @ 10.6% (0.27 0.27)
2-1 @ 8.27% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
3-1 @ 7.9% (-0.084 -0.08)
1-0 @ 7.74% (0.444 0.44)
4-0 @ 7.6% (0.068 0.07)
4-1 @ 5.66% (-0.157 -0.16)
5-0 @ 4.36% (-0.034 -0.03)
5-1 @ 3.25% (-0.146 -0.15)
3-2 @ 2.94% (-0.142 -0.14)
4-2 @ 2.11% (-0.139 -0.14)
6-0 @ 2.08% (-0.051 -0.05)
6-1 @ 1.55% (-0.097 -0.1)
5-2 @ 1.21% (-0.101 -0.1)
Other @ 4.36%
Total : 80.72%
1-1 @ 5.77% (0.13 0.13)
2-2 @ 3.08% (-0.094 -0.09)
0-0 @ 2.7% (0.197 0.2)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 12.38%
1-2 @ 2.15% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-1 @ 2.01% (0.078 0.08)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 6.89%

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