Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
40.33% ( -0.56) | 28.1% ( -0.09) | 31.58% ( 0.65) |
Both teams to score 46.83% ( 0.46) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.86% ( 0.47) | 59.14% ( -0.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.43% ( 0.37) | 79.58% ( -0.36) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.29% ( -0.09) | 28.72% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.46% ( -0.11) | 64.55% ( 0.11) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.7% ( 0.73) | 34.31% ( -0.73) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29% ( 0.77) | 71.01% ( -0.77) |
Score Analysis |
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 12.29% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.68% Total : 40.32% | 1-1 @ 13.15% 0-0 @ 9.85% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.1% | 0-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.28% Total : 31.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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