Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.31%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 12.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Porto |
12.72% ( 0) | 17.97% ( 0) | 69.31% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 52.19% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.12% ( -0.01) | 38.88% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.81% ( -0) | 61.19% ( 0) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.08% | 41.92% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.63% ( 0) | 78.37% ( -0) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.86% ( -0) | 10.14% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.65% ( -0.01) | 33.35% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 3.7% 2-1 @ 3.68% ( 0) 2-0 @ 1.61% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.22% 3-1 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.45% Total : 12.72% | 1-1 @ 8.46% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.25% 2-2 @ 4.21% 3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.13% Total : 17.97% | 0-2 @ 11.13% 0-1 @ 9.73% 1-2 @ 9.68% 0-3 @ 8.49% ( -0) 1-3 @ 7.38% ( -0) 0-4 @ 4.86% ( -0) 1-4 @ 4.22% 2-3 @ 3.21% 0-5 @ 2.22% 1-5 @ 1.93% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.84% Other @ 4.6% Total : 69.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 39 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 68 | -37 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |