Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 25.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 0-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
Result | ||
Austin FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
49.96% ( 0.49) | 24.56% ( 0.01) | 25.48% ( -0.5) |
Both teams to score 53.68% ( -0.49) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.5% ( -0.42) | 48.5% ( 0.42) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.37% ( -0.38) | 70.63% ( 0.39) |
Austin FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.57% ( 0.04) | 19.44% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.73% ( 0.06) | 51.27% ( -0.05) |
San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.63% ( -0.63) | 33.38% ( 0.63) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30% ( -0.7) | 70% ( 0.7) |
Score Analysis |
Austin FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
1-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 5.21% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.02) Other @ 3% Total : 49.96% | 1-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.56% | 0-1 @ 7.12% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.37% Total : 25.48% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 18 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 17 |
4 | Toronto | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
7 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
8 | DC United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 13 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
11 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
12 | Chicago Fire | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
13 | Orlando City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 |
14 | Nashville SCNashville | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 18 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
3 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 17 |
5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 15 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 15 |
7 | Austin FCAustin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 13 |
9 | St Louis City | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 12 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 11 |
11 | Portland TimbersPortland | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 10 |
12 | Dallas | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
13 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 4 |