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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 81.88%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 6.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 3-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.31%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (2.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
81.88% ( -0.77) | 11.6% ( 0.47) | 6.52% ( 0.3) |
Both teams to score 51.02% ( -0.42) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.67% ( -1.3) | 27.34% ( 1.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.09% ( -1.65) | 47.91% ( 1.66) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.04% ( -0.36) | 4.97% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.13% ( -1.1) | 19.87% ( 1.1) |
Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.69% ( -0.23) | 46.31% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.04% ( -0.18) | 81.96% ( 0.18) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
3-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 7.99% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.19) 4-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.38) 4-1 @ 6% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.21) 5-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.19) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.17) 4-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.08) 6-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.14) 5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.08) 7-0 @ 1% ( -0.1) Other @ 4.29% Total : 81.87% | 1-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.92% Total : 11.6% | 1-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.71% Total : 6.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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