Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
46.6% ( 0.01) | 24.68% ( -0.11) | 28.71% ( 0.11) |
Both teams to score 55.92% ( 0.45) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.23% ( 0.55) | 46.77% ( -0.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.97% ( 0.52) | 69.03% ( -0.52) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.86% ( 0.23) | 20.14% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.58% ( 0.36) | 52.42% ( -0.36) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.03% ( 0.36) | 29.97% ( -0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.92% ( 0.43) | 66.08% ( -0.43) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
1-0 @ 9.67% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.85% Total : 46.6% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.68% | 0-1 @ 7.27% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.2% Total : 28.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
> Australian A-League Full Table |