Taca de Portugal | Third Round
Oct 20, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Estadio Joao Paulo II
Lusitania1 - 4Benfica
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Estoril 0-1 Benfica
Saturday, October 7 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, October 7 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Lusitania 0-7 Benfica
Regardless of how strong Schmidt opts to go with his starting XI, even a second or third-string Benfica side should comfortably thrash their fourth-tier opponents here. Lusitania will take encouragement from Benfica's recent struggles against lower-league opposition, but they will be completely out of their depth in this one and will just have to enjoy the occasion and remain hopeful of keeping the score down. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 92.79%. A draw had a probability of 5.5% and a win for Lusitania had a probability of 1.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-3 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (12.64%) and 0-2 (11.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.62%), while for a Lusitania win it was 1-0 (0.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lusitania | Draw | Benfica |
1.7% ( -0) | 5.51% ( -0) | 92.79% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 33.34% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
