Women`s World Cup

[monks data]

Women's World Cup | Round of 16

Aug 6, 2023 at 10am UK

AAMI Park

Sweden Women
0 - 0
USA Women

Asllani (49')

FT
(aet)

Ertz (119')

Sweden Women win 5-4 on penalties

Preview: Sweden Women vs. USA Women - prediction, team news, lineups

By Ben Sully | 04 August 2023

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Women's World Cup clash between Sweden Women and USA Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

On Sunday, Sweden Women and USA Women will battle it out for a place in the quarter-finals of the Women's World Cup 2023.

Sweden topped their group after taking maximum points from their three games, while the USA finished second in Group E behind Netherlands.

Match preview

Sweden Women's Rebecka Blomqvist celebrates scoring their fifth goal with teammates on July 29, 2023 © Reuters

After leaving it late to claim a narrow victory over South Africa in their tournament opener, Sweden moved through the gears in their second group match against Italy, as they cruised to a 5-0 victory to seal their place in the last 16 with a game to spare.

Despite making nine changes to their side for Wednesday's meeting with Argentina, they still managed to pick up all three points courtesy of a 2-0 victory.

Wolfsburg striker Rebecka Blomqvist opened the scoring in the 66th minute, before Elin Rubensson came off the bench to score a late penalty.

Sweden are just one of three teams to have won all three group games at the tournament, and they will be looking to continue their winning run against the defending world champions.

They may be able to take confidence from their most recent meeting with the USA, which resulted in a commanding 3-0 win in the group stage of the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.

Lindsey Horan of the USA Women celebrates scoring their first goal with Andi Sullivan and teammates on July 27, 2023 © Reuters

In contrast to their opponents, USA have stumbled through the group phase despite beginning the tournament with a 3-0 victory over Vietnam.

After picking up a point against the Netherlands thanks to Lindsey Horan's second-half equaliser, the USA knew they needed to avoid defeat against Portugal to advance to the last 16.

The Stars and Stripes were inches away from elimination, as Portugal's Ana Capeta struck the post in stoppage time, ensuring that the contest finished in a goalless draw.

While they may be frustrated with their performances in the group stage, they continue to be a tough team to beat, having avoided defeat in their last 12 internationals (W10, L2).

USA have never been eliminated from the Women's World Cup earlier than the semi-final stage, and they have not lost at the tournament since suffering defeat to Japan on penalties in the 2011 final.

Sweden Women Women's World Cup form:

USA Women Women's World Cup form:

Team News

USA midfielder Lindsey Horan celebrates with Sophia Smith after scoring a goal against Vietnam on July 22, 2023 © Reuters

After making wholesale changes for Matchday Two, Peter Gerhardsson is expected to revert back to the side that started the first two matches.

Amanda Ilestedt, who has scored three goals at the tournament, will start in central defence alongside Magdalena Eriksson, while Nathalie Bjorn and Jonna Andersson will operate as the two full-backs.

Barcelona Fridolina Rolfo has scored in both of her two appearances at the Women's World Cup finals, and she will be looking to add to her tally when she lines up on the left flank on Sunday.

As for the USA, Vlatko Andonovski is expected to stick with a back four featuring Emily Fox, Naomi Girma, Julie Ertz and Crystal Dunn.

After picking up her second yellow card of the tournament against Portugal, Rose Lavelle will miss the last-16 tie through suspension.

As a result, Savannah Demelo could be brought into the side to feature in midfield alongside Andi Sullivan and Horan.

Sweden Women possible starting lineup:
Musovic; Bjorn, Ilestedt, Eriksson, Andersson; Angeldal, Rubensson; Rytting Kaneryd, Asllani, Rolfo; Blackstenius

USA Women possible starting lineup:
Naeher; Fox, Grima, Ertz, Dunn; Demelo, Sullivan, Horan; Williams, Smith, Morgan

SM words green background

We say: Sweden Women 2-1 USA Women

There have been signs in the group stage that the USA's dominance at the Women's World Cup could be coming to an end, and we think that they the record winners will be eliminated by a Sweden side that have been in fine form at the tournament, having won all three of their matches, scoring nine goals and only conceding on just one occasion.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden Women win with a probability of 48.09%. A win for USA Women had a probability of 26.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest USA Women win was 0-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%).