Serie A | Gameweek 11
Nov 5, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma2 - 1Lecce
We said: Roma 1-0 Lecce
Since being shocked by Genoa in September, Roma have seen off several opponents of relatively modest stature, only having their limitations exposed by Scudetto favourites Inter last time out. As Lecce's early spurt of form has waned, they are also unlikely to record just a second Serie A win over their fellow Giallorossi on Rome soil. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 64.6%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 12.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.09%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Lecce |
64.6% ( -0.01) | 22.48% ( 0.01) | 12.91% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 39.06% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
