Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Braga had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 1-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Braga win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
59.87% ( 0.64) | 20.45% ( 0.05) | 19.67% ( -0.7) |
Both teams to score 59.87% ( -1.42) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.31% ( -1.31) | 36.69% ( 1.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.15% ( -1.43) | 58.85% ( 1.43) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.03% ( -0.23) | 11.96% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.63% ( -0.48) | 37.36% ( 0.48) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.01% ( -1.43) | 31.99% ( 1.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.55% ( -1.67) | 68.45% ( 1.66) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.4) 1-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.27% Total : 59.87% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.45% | 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.47% Total : 19.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |