Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 64.76%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 15.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
Result | ||
Chicago Fire | Draw | St Louis City |
64.76% ( -3.15) | 19.7% ( 0.53) | 15.54% ( 2.62) |
Both teams to score 53.83% ( 5.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.46% ( 3.39) | 40.54% ( -3.39) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.07% ( 3.39) | 62.92% ( -3.39) |
Chicago Fire Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.21% ( 0.13) | 11.79% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.01% ( 0.28) | 36.99% ( -0.28) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.03% ( 5.87) | 38.97% ( -5.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.3% ( 5.11) | 75.7% ( -5.11) |
Score Analysis |
Chicago Fire | Draw | St Louis City |
2-0 @ 10.5% ( -1.59) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.2) 1-0 @ 9.82% ( -1.55) 3-0 @ 7.48% ( -1.09) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.18) 4-0 @ 4% ( -0.56) 4-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.57) 4-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.31) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.23) 5-1 @ 1.61% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.82% Total : 64.76% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.77) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.75) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.31) Other @ 0.14% Total : 19.7% | 1-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.71) 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.32) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.43) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.39) Other @ 1.97% Total : 15.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 27 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 24 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
4 | Toronto | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
5 | DC United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 17 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
8 | Columbus Crew | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 14 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Orlando City | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 12 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 20 |
4 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 18 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
8 | St Louis City | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 16 |
9 | Austin FCAustin | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
11 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 11 |
12 | Dallas | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
13 | Portland TimbersPortland | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 10 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |